Greek Debt Woes Ripple Outward, From Asia to U.S.
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PostPosted: Sat, May 8 2010, 11:04 pm EDT    Post subject: Greek Debt Woes Ripple Outward, From Asia to U.S. Reply with quote



Greek Debt Woes Ripple Outward, From Asia to U.S.


By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and ERIC DASH
Published: May 8, 2010

The fear that began in Athens, raced through Europe, and finally shook the stock market in the United States is now affecting the broader global economy, from the ability of Asian corporations to raise money to the outlook for money-market funds where American savers park their cash.

What was once a local worry about the debt burden of one of Europe’s smallest economies has quickly gone global. Already, jittery investors have forced Brazil to scale back bond sales as interest rates soared and caused currencies in Asia like the Korean won to weaken. Ten companies around the world that had planned to issue stock delayed their offerings, the most in a single week since October 2008.

The increased global anxiety threatens to slow the recovery in the United States, where job growth has finally picked up after the deepest recession since the Great Depression. It could also inhibit consumer spending as stock portfolios shrink and loans are harder to come by.

“It’s not just a European problem, it’s the U.S., Japan and the U.K. right now,” said Ian Kelson, a bond fund manager in London with T. Rowe Price. “It’s across the board.”

The crisis is so perilous for Europe that the leaders of the 16 countries that use the euro worked into the early morning Saturday on a proposal to create a so-called stabilization mechanism intended to reassure the markets. On Sunday, finance ministers from all 27 European Union states are expected to gather in Brussels to discuss and possibly approve the proposal.

The mechanism would probably be a way for the states, and possibly the European Central Bank, to guarantee loans taken out by the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, to support ailing economies. European leaders including the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, said Saturday morning that the union should be ready to activate the mechanism by Monday morning if needed.

In Spain Saturday, Vice President Joseph R. Biden underscored the importance of the issue after a meeting with Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. “The President and I also spent time discussing the economic crisis that is focused on Greece and the efforts being made to address it,” Mr. Biden said. “We agreed on the importance of a resolute European action to strengthen the European economy and to build confidence in the markets. And I conveyed the support of the United States of America toward those efforts and was pleased to hear the efforts that were underway on the part of the President.

Beyond Europe, the crisis has sent waves of fear through global stock exchanges.

A decade ago, it took more than a year for the chain reaction that began with the devaluation of the Thai currency to spread beyond Asia to Russia, which defaulted on its debt, and eventually caused the near-collapse of a giant American hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management.

This crisis, by contrast, seemed to ricochet from country to country in seconds, as traders simultaneously abandoned everything from Portuguese bonds to American blue chips. On Wall Street on Thursday afternoon, televised images of rioting in Athens to protest austerity measures only amplified the anxiety as the stock market briefly plunged nearly 1,000 points.

“Up until last week there was this confidence that nothing could upset the apple cart as long as the economy and jobs growth was positive,” said William H. Gross, managing director of the Pimco Group, the giant bond-management firm. “Now, fear is back in play.”

While the immediate cause of the worries is Greece’s ballooning budget deficit and the risk that other fragile countries like Spain and Portugal might default, the turmoil also exposed deeper fears that government borrowing in bigger nations like Britain, Germany and even the United States is unsustainable.

“Greece may just be an early warning signal,” said Byron Wien, a prominent Wall Street strategist who is vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners. “The U.S. is a long way from being where Greece is, but the developed world has been living beyond its means and is now being called to account.”

If the anxiety spreads, American banks could return to the posture they adopted after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008, when they cut back sharply on mortgages, auto financing, credit card lending and small business loans. That could stymie job growth and halt the broader economic recovery that is beginning to gain traction.

Some American companies are facing higher costs to finance their debt, while big exporters are seeing their edge over European competitors shrink as the dollar strengthens. Riskier assets, like stocks, are suddenly out of favor, while cash has streamed into the safest of all investments, gold.

Just as Greece is being forced to pay more to borrow, more risky American companies are being forced to pay up, too. Some issuers of new junk bonds in the consumer sector are likely to have to pay roughly 9 percent on new bonds, up from about 8.5 percent before this week’s volatility, said Kevin Cassidy, senior credit officer with Moody’s.

To be sure, not all of the consequences are negative. Though the situation is perilous for Europe, the United States economy does still enjoy some favorable tailwinds. With the flight to quality prompted by this week’s volatility, interest rates have dropped, benefiting homebuyers seeking mortgages and other borrowers. New data released Friday showed the economy added 290,000 jobs in April, the best monthly showing in four years.

Further, crude prices fell last week on fears of a slowdown, which should bring lower prices at the pump within weeks. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the euro, reaching its highest level in 14 months.

While that makes European vacations more affordable for American tourists and could improve the fortunes of European companies, it could hurt profits at their American rivals. A stronger dollar makes American goods less affordable for buyers overseas, a one-two punch for American exporters if Europe falls into recession as a result of the crisis. Excluding oil, the 16 countries that make up the euro-zone buy about 14 percent of American exports.

For the largest American companies, which have benefited from the weak dollar in recent years, the pain could be more acute. More than a quarter of the profits of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index come from abroad, with Europe forming the largest component, according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s chief United States equity strategist.

All this could mean the difference between an economy that grows fast enough to bring down unemployment, and one that is more stagnant.

If Europe does end up in a double-dip recession, that could reduce economic growth in the United States by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, according to Bernard Baumohl, the chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton.

The direct exposure of American banks to Greece is small, but below the surface, there are signs of other fissures. Even the strongest banks in Germany and France have heavy exposure to more troubled economies on the periphery of the Continent, and these big banks in turn are closely intertwined with their American counterparts.

Over all, United States banks have $3.6 trillion in exposure to European banks, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That includes more than a trillion dollars in loans to France and Germany, and nearly $200 billion to Spain.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/09/business/global/09ripple.html
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