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[quote="Jeff M."]All I know is Wayne should get 100% of our vote. We should vote to represent our local interests first and who better to do that than someone who lives here and sat on our TC. I would say the same whether Dem or Rep so don't try to make my post political.[/quote]
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Guest
Posted: Wed, Nov 2 2011, 1:24 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Technically speaking Tom Goodwin was the incumbent when Linda Greenstein beat him. He was the incumbent, but she had the name recognition.
He wasn't an elected incumbent. The advantage historically apples only to incumbents who have won election for the position. Appointees often lose.
Yup and the advantage in statewide races is name recognition. They can't deliver the pork or collect the kind of campaign cash a national campaign can. Incumbency ain't the problem this year Kanka is.
Guest
Posted: Wed, Nov 2 2011, 11:58 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Technically speaking Tom Goodwin was the incumbent when Linda Greenstein beat him. He was the incumbent, but she had the name recognition.
He wasn't an elected incumbent. The advantage historically apples only to incumbents who have won election for the position. Appointees often lose.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 3:22 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Linda Greenstein beat the incumbent Barbara Wright. Game, set and match
You seem to be purposely missing the point. Republicans win in this district with good candidates. Since I am a nice guy, I will grant you it is hard to run against incumbents, mainly due to name recognition. This is why whenever an incumbent leaves office there is a scramble to take that office. This is what happened when Baroni left.
The problem with using statewide stats is that the 14th is a wierd district. It has a lot of public sector workers in Mercer county, a great deal of high income suburban areas, and most recently the addition of some Chris Smith style republican areas. all of this means this district can go either way. 15 years ago the seats were all republican. Then we had republican senators with democratic assembly people, two years ago it went all democratic. Does this mean the Democrats are a lock? I don't think so. I think Greenstein is formidable, especially with a week candidate like Kanka. D'Angelo is tricky. He has very strong union support, but he has also engendered a great deal of animosity. Bensen is the really weak link. He is new to the office and basically no one knows who he is. I think a strong republican could easily knock him off
Be careful with your statistical analysis, in the hands of an amateur they can be dangerous.
Not for the state senate. Baroni vacated it and there was no incumbent in the race. Still waiting on an example where a non-incumbent republican beats an incumbent state senate candidate in our district like you promised.
Ok try to follow this we will do it slowly. Baroni is named to the port Authority the governor appoints Goodwin to the senate. A special election is later held. Goodman is the incumbent. Goodman loses to Greenstein.
Look you can parse this however you want. I don't think there is much difference between incumbent assembly and incumbent senate. Interestingly Greenstein has beaten an incumbent in both assembly and senate.
Over the past 20 years our state senator has usually been a republican. Your theory is only Democrats can win against and incumbent?
The problem I have is that I never wanted to talk about incumbency that is your trip. I wanted to talk about why the republicans didn't put up a better candidate than Kanka. I can only assume your answer is that because big bad incumbent Linda Greenstein will crush them wahh..
My point is this and I am done. If the republicans put up a candidate as good as Inverso or Baroni they would win. If you don't think so fine.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 1:25 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Linda Greenstein beat the incumbent Barbara Wright. Game, set and match
You seem to be purposely missing the point. Republicans win in this district with good candidates. Since I am a nice guy, I will grant you it is hard to run against incumbents, mainly due to name recognition. This is why whenever an incumbent leaves office there is a scramble to take that office. This is what happened when Baroni left.
The problem with using statewide stats is that the 14th is a wierd district. It has a lot of public sector workers in Mercer county, a great deal of high income suburban areas, and most recently the addition of some Chris Smith style republican areas. all of this means this district can go either way. 15 years ago the seats were all republican. Then we had republican senators with democratic assembly people, two years ago it went all democratic. Does this mean the Democrats are a lock? I don't think so. I think Greenstein is formidable, especially with a week candidate like Kanka. D'Angelo is tricky. He has very strong union support, but he has also engendered a great deal of animosity. Bensen is the really weak link. He is new to the office and basically no one knows who he is. I think a strong republican could easily knock him off
Be careful with your statistical analysis, in the hands of an amateur they can be dangerous.
Not for the state senate. Baroni vacated it and there was no incumbent in the race. Still waiting on an example where a non-incumbent republican beats an incumbent state senate candidate in our district like you promised.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 12:53 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Technically speaking Tom Goodwin was the incumbent when Linda Greenstein beat him. He was the incumbent, but she had the name recognition.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 12:15 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Linda Greenstein beat the incumbent Barbara Wright. Game, set and match.
You seem to be purposely missing the point. Republicans win in this district with good candidates. Since I am a nice guy, I will grant you it is hard to run against incumbents, mainly due to name recognition. This is why whenever an incumbent leaves office there is a scramble to take that office. This is what happened when Baroni left.
The problem with using statewide stats is that the 14th is a wierd district. It has a lot of public sector workers in Mercer county, a great deal of high income suburban areas, and most recently the addition of some Chris Smith style republican areas. all of this means this district can go either way. 15 years ago the seats were all republican. Then we had republican senators with democratic assembly people, two years ago it went all democratic. Does this mean the Democrats are a lock? I don't think so. I think Greenstein is formidable, especially with a week candidate like Kanka. D'Angelo is tricky. He has very strong union support, but he has also engendered a great deal of animosity. Bensen is the really weak link. He is new to the office and basically no one knows who he is. I think a strong republican could easily knock him off.
Be careful with your statistical analysis, in the hands of an amateur they can be dangerous.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 11:22 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Tea Party YAWN! Its the only fall back complaint you and the other far left hard core dems have in town. Please come up with something else anything else. We all know Linda is in the pocket of the state employee and teacher unions and is going to win. You can go back to watching MSNBC now.
You still have not given me a reason to vote for Kanka.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Greenstein's voting record has proven herself at best useless to Cranbury and at times an enemy.
But seriously, none of this matters anyway. Greenstein is an incumbent and in this state that means she could show up at our parade and walk down Main Street giving everyone the finger and cursing at them and she would get reelected.
I actually disagree. If the republicans gave us someone to vote for I think Linda would lose. I still don't understand why they gave Baroni that worthless position at the Port Authority. I think he would have been a good candidate to challenge Holt or maybe take a shot at statewide office, now he will never be heard from again.
Truthfully, I think Wittman would have been a better candidate on the top of the ticket than Kanka. I have not seen Kanka. His ad campaign is pathetic, and I swear to you start looking through the Hamilton BOE minutes, this guy is a mystery.
Can you back up your belief with any data? Something like 97% of incumbents in Greenstein's position are routinely re-elected in this state. That is an overwhelming majority that can't be explained over time as there consistently not being any viable alternative candidate. Incumbency is a huge advantage everywhere but few places is this more true than in New Jersey state senate and assembly positions.
Back up with some data? Only this, when the Republicans have run a good candidate for senate in the 14th district he wins. See Bill Baroni and Bill Inverso. Kanka is a nonentity as a candidate. The only data that matters is who the candidates are. When Baroni and Inverso ran they put on great campaigns. We met them. They put on numerous town hall meetings. We new how they stood on every issue. Have you met Kanka? I have not. What little I have found on him is non-specific boilerplate. On his own website the "Issues" page is left blank??????
You can moan about incumbents being reelected, although I am sure you thought it was ok when Baroni and Inverso got re-elected, but my advice would serve you well, put up a real candidate, again Wittman is actually far better qualified than Kanka.
What a silly response. The point was about the benefit of incumbents. You then list completely unrelated elections where there was no incumbent who lost. So your theory is that the 97% of the time the person running against an incumbent loses is always because they either weren’t a good candidate or didn’t run a good campaign. To make this theory even more laughable, there are plenty of examples where people who eventually do when races when an incumbent isn’t in it previously lost when an incumbent was. So magically they became better candidates when the incumbents were out of the picture.
And your attempt to make a partisan comment is equally sad. The statistics cross party lines equally. Once Baroni was elected he held the same incumbency near lock on office Greenstein has now. It’s not even a dig on the politicians. It’s the electorate’s fault that it doesn’t do its job and elect people primarily on their merits of their campaign. But to pretend they do is just fantasyland time.
Sorry friend, it is your response that is silly. When you say they previous elections in our district are "unrelated" you are clearly not rational. Here is the fact in our district. When republicans run strong candidates for senate they generally win. Kanka is not a strong candidate. There is a lot of Greenstein bashing, some of it justified. But NOBODY has tried to make the argument that Kanka is a strong candidate. I think Greenstein is vulnerable. For example, when Inverso stepped down, Greenstein did not run. Why? Because she knew Baroni would maul her. Again my advice, Find a good candidate and quit whining.
Wow, you are incredibly persistent in side-stepping reality and common sense. It's like you keep saying the sky is orange and when anyone points out it is blue you say, "no, look, it's clearly orange."
You say "when Republicans run strong candidates for Senate then generally win" in our district. So please cite examples when this victory was against an incumbent. You don't seem to understand basic logical causation. If the only example you can find to support your thesis that good non-incumbent candidates win is when they happen to not run against an incumbent, you haven’t proven anything since you have two variables – the candidate and the lack of incumbency. Yet over and over again incumbents win, but you refuse to see any pattern there. And the only way you can twist that fact to support your worldview is to pretend that 97% of the time those running against the incumbents were not good candidates, even when they are the same people who by your logic must later be good candidates when there is no incumbent in the race.
Honestly you are part of the problem with our political system because you are like a child putting his hands over his eyes and saying he doesn’t see anything. It is incredibly naïve to think that there is no incumbent advantage and that all we need are good candidates. It gives the electorate way to much credit versus their actual behavior pattern. And if you refuse to see a problem then you can’t help be part of any solution.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 10:58 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Tea Party YAWN! Its the only fall back complaint you and the other far left hard core dems have in town. Please come up with something else anything else. We all know Linda is in the pocket of the state employee and teacher unions and is going to win. You can go back to watching MSNBC now.
You still have not given me a reason to vote for Kanka.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Greenstein's voting record has proven herself at best useless to Cranbury and at times an enemy.
But seriously, none of this matters anyway. Greenstein is an incumbent and in this state that means she could show up at our parade and walk down Main Street giving everyone the finger and cursing at them and she would get reelected.
I actually disagree. If the republicans gave us someone to vote for I think Linda would lose. I still don't understand why they gave Baroni that worthless position at the Port Authority. I think he would have been a good candidate to challenge Holt or maybe take a shot at statewide office, now he will never be heard from again.
Truthfully, I think Wittman would have been a better candidate on the top of the ticket than Kanka. I have not seen Kanka. His ad campaign is pathetic, and I swear to you start looking through the Hamilton BOE minutes, this guy is a mystery.
Can you back up your belief with any data? Something like 97% of incumbents in Greenstein's position are routinely re-elected in this state. That is an overwhelming majority that can't be explained over time as there consistently not being any viable alternative candidate. Incumbency is a huge advantage everywhere but few places is this more true than in New Jersey state senate and assembly positions.
Back up with some data? Only this, when the Republicans have run a good candidate for senate in the 14th district he wins. See Bill Baroni and Bill Inverso. Kanka is a nonentity as a candidate. The only data that matters is who the candidates are. When Baroni and Inverso ran they put on great campaigns. We met them. They put on numerous town hall meetings. We new how they stood on every issue. Have you met Kanka? I have not. What little I have found on him is non-specific boilerplate. On his own website the "Issues" page is left blank??????
You can moan about incumbents being reelected, although I am sure you thought it was ok when Baroni and Inverso got re-elected, but my advice would serve you well, put up a real candidate, again Wittman is actually far better qualified than Kanka.
What a silly response. The point was about the benefit of incumbents. You then list completely unrelated elections where there was no incumbent who lost. So your theory is that the 97% of the time the person running against an incumbent loses is always because they either weren’t a good candidate or didn’t run a good campaign. To make this theory even more laughable, there are plenty of examples where people who eventually do when races when an incumbent isn’t in it previously lost when an incumbent was. So magically they became better candidates when the incumbents were out of the picture.
And your attempt to make a partisan comment is equally sad. The statistics cross party lines equally. Once Baroni was elected he held the same incumbency near lock on office Greenstein has now. It’s not even a dig on the politicians. It’s the electorate’s fault that it doesn’t do its job and elect people primarily on their merits of their campaign. But to pretend they do is just fantasyland time.
Sorry friend, it is your response that is silly. When you say they previous elections in our district are "unrelated" you are clearly not rational. Here is the fact in our district. When republicans run strong candidates for senate they generally win. Kanka is not a strong candidate. There is a lot of Greenstein bashing, some of it justified. But NOBODY has tried to make the argument that Kanka is a strong candidate. I think Greenstein is vulnerable. For example, when Inverso stepped down, Greenstein did not run. Why? Because she knew Baroni would maul her. Again my advice, Find a good candidate and quit whining.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 10:49 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
My favorite Senator Linda Greenstein quote
"I did not vote to support the COAH bill a few years ago, even though it was the speaker’s bill."
She abstained since it was politically the right move for her but not for her district. Because if she was really working for all of us then she would have voted no. Linda is always working for Linda and not Cranbury.
http://www.mycentraljersey.com/article/20111101/NJNEWS10/311010022/Linda-R-Greenstein-Democratic-incumbent
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 10:41 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
More pro consolidation by Senator Greenstein
How specifically will you rein in property taxes?
I believe that our new 2 percent cap will help stabilize property taxes because towns will be forced to keep property tax increases at or below that level. They will be forced to make cuts in their local budgets or to economize through shared services. To cut property taxes, we will need to revisit the issue of how we fund schools in New Jersey. We should do whatever we can to provide incentives for consolidation, regionalization and shared services.
Guest
Posted: Tue, Nov 1 2011, 10:39 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Excerpt from and interview with State Senator Greenstein
Describe your position on the merger of towns and school districts to save duplicated expenses.
I am a strong supporter of the merger of towns and school districts to save expenses
Guest
Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011, 12:49 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Tea Party YAWN! Its the only fall back complaint you and the other far left hard core dems have in town. Please come up with something else anything else. We all know Linda is in the pocket of the state employee and teacher unions and is going to win. You can go back to watching MSNBC now.
You still have not given me a reason to vote for Kanka.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Greenstein's voting record has proven herself at best useless to Cranbury and at times an enemy.
But seriously, none of this matters anyway. Greenstein is an incumbent and in this state that means she could show up at our parade and walk down Main Street giving everyone the finger and cursing at them and she would get reelected.
I actually disagree. If the republicans gave us someone to vote for I think Linda would lose. I still don't understand why they gave Baroni that worthless position at the Port Authority. I think he would have been a good candidate to challenge Holt or maybe take a shot at statewide office, now he will never be heard from again.
Truthfully, I think Wittman would have been a better candidate on the top of the ticket than Kanka. I have not seen Kanka. His ad campaign is pathetic, and I swear to you start looking through the Hamilton BOE minutes, this guy is a mystery.
Can you back up your belief with any data? Something like 97% of incumbents in Greenstein's position are routinely re-elected in this state. That is an overwhelming majority that can't be explained over time as there consistently not being any viable alternative candidate. Incumbency is a huge advantage everywhere but few places is this more true than in New Jersey state senate and assembly positions.
Back up with some data? Only this, when the Republicans have run a good candidate for senate in the 14th district he wins. See Bill Baroni and Bill Inverso. Kanka is a nonentity as a candidate. The only data that matters is who the candidates are. When Baroni and Inverso ran they put on great campaigns. We met them. They put on numerous town hall meetings. We new how they stood on every issue. Have you met Kanka? I have not. What little I have found on him is non-specific boilerplate. On his own website the "Issues" page is left blank??????
You can moan about incumbents being reelected, although I am sure you thought it was ok when Baroni and Inverso got re-elected, but my advice would serve you well, put up a real candidate, again Wittman is actually far better qualified than Kanka.
What a silly response. The point was about the benefit of incumbents. You then list completely unrelated elections where there was no incumbent who lost. So your theory is that the 97% of the time the person running against an incumbent loses is always because they either weren’t a good candidate or didn’t run a good campaign. To make this theory even more laughable, there are plenty of examples where people who eventually do when races when an incumbent isn’t in it previously lost when an incumbent was. So magically they became better candidates when the incumbents were out of the picture.
And your attempt to make a partisan comment is equally sad. The statistics cross party lines equally. Once Baroni was elected he held the same incumbency near lock on office Greenstein has now. It’s not even a dig on the politicians. It’s the electorate’s fault that it doesn’t do its job and elect people primarily on their merits of their campaign. But to pretend they do is just fantasyland time.
Guest
Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011, 12:40 pm EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Tea Party YAWN! Its the only fall back complaint you and the other far left hard core dems have in town. Please come up with something else anything else. We all know Linda is in the pocket of the state employee and teacher unions and is going to win. You can go back to watching MSNBC now.
You still have not given me a reason to vote for Kanka.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Greenstein's voting record has proven herself at best useless to Cranbury and at times an enemy.
But seriously, none of this matters anyway. Greenstein is an incumbent and in this state that means she could show up at our parade and walk down Main Street giving everyone the finger and cursing at them and she would get reelected.
I actually disagree. If the republicans gave us someone to vote for I think Linda would lose. I still don't understand why they gave Baroni that worthless position at the Port Authority. I think he would have been a good candidate to challenge Holt or maybe take a shot at statewide office, now he will never be heard from again.
Truthfully, I think Wittman would have been a better candidate on the top of the ticket than Kanka. I have not seen Kanka. His ad campaign is pathetic, and I swear to you start looking through the Hamilton BOE minutes, this guy is a mystery.
Can you back up your belief with any data? Something like 97% of incumbents in Greenstein's position are routinely re-elected in this state. That is an overwhelming majority that can't be explained over time as there consistently not being any viable alternative candidate. Incumbency is a huge advantage everywhere but few places is this more true than in New Jersey state senate and assembly positions.
Back up with some data? Only this, when the Republicans have run a good candidate for senate in the 14th district he wins. See Bill Baroni and Bill Inverso. Kanka is a nonentity as a candidate. The only data that matters is who the candidates are. When Baroni and Inverso ran they put on great campaigns. We met them. They put on numerous town hall meetings. We new how they stood on every issue. Have you met Kanka? I have not. What little I have found on him is non-specific boilerplate. On his own website the "Issues" page is left blank??????
You can moan about incumbents being reelected, although I am sure you thought it was ok when Baroni and Inverso got re-elected, but my advice would serve you well, put up a real candidate, again Wittman is actually far better qualified than Kanka.
Guest
Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011, 10:34 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
It doesn't really matter who you vote for.
Wake up!
They promise you the world to get elected, then they do whatever they want once they get there. Do you really think it's all about "the people"? Were you just born yesterday?
It's all about who makes the biggest stink and who hands out the most money. It's all about the money, honey.
I can't believe that people are still naive enough to believe that politicians are there to serve the public. They're only in it to serve themselves and their moneyed cronies.
Maybe, the people who work for the town are sincere. But, any higher up than that................it's all a money game.
Guest
Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011, 9:51 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Jeff M. wrote:
All I know is Wayne should get 100% of our vote. We should vote to represent our local interests first and who better to do that than someone who lives here and sat on our TC. I would say the same whether Dem or Rep so don't try to make my post political.
Nice try Wayne - we should not be sending teaparty type people to Trenton
Guest
Posted: Mon, Oct 31 2011, 9:50 am EDT
Post subject: Re: Linda Greenstein and COAH
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Guest wrote:
Tea Party YAWN! Its the only fall back complaint you and the other far left hard core dems have in town. Please come up with something else anything else. We all know Linda is in the pocket of the state employee and teacher unions and is going to win. You can go back to watching MSNBC now.
You still have not given me a reason to vote for Kanka.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Greenstein's voting record has proven herself at best useless to Cranbury and at times an enemy.
But seriously, none of this matters anyway. Greenstein is an incumbent and in this state that means she could show up at our parade and walk down Main Street giving everyone the finger and cursing at them and she would get reelected.
I actually disagree. If the republicans gave us someone to vote for I think Linda would lose. I still don't understand why they gave Baroni that worthless position at the Port Authority. I think he would have been a good candidate to challenge Holt or maybe take a shot at statewide office, now he will never be heard from again.
Truthfully, I think Wittman would have been a better candidate on the top of the ticket than Kanka. I have not seen Kanka. His ad campaign is pathetic, and I swear to you start looking through the Hamilton BOE minutes, this guy is a mystery.
Can you back up your belief with any data? Something like 97% of incumbents in Greenstein's position are routinely re-elected in this state. That is an overwhelming majority that can't be explained over time as there consistently not being any viable alternative candidate. Incumbency is a huge advantage everywhere but few places is this more true than in New Jersey state senate and assembly positions.