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Guest
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Posted: Mon, Jun 6 2011, 9:51 am EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Guest wrote: | What a weak dodge. Not a single poster was defending the value of Cranbury houses. In fact, one of the posts contradicted your made-up data with even lower actual sales data. If the point was to defend home values why give examples with lower cost per foot prices than your pretend data?
The bottom line is other posters presented actual data. You never did. The response you got wasn't anyone panicked about their values. It was a lot of people calling BS when they smelled it. And the data proved you wrong. Which also means your supposed degrees and expertise are about as credible as your data.
You better get to bed, kid, because tomorrow is a school day and you wouldn't want your parents to catch you up too late. |
Time for a reality check on the tenor of this debate. Here in Cranbury we can be as mean spirited and snotty on real estate as we can on religion and politics. The above poster would never behave face to face as he does on these boards.
I for the most part agree with the evil gloating poster, though I find his tone repugnant. I posted about Cranbury being a thin market. That is a problem trying to do comparables. I am worried that everyone got there hopes up this spring when we had a small flurry of activity and some houses that had been on the market for quite a while sold. Since then it looks like things have slowed considerably. Nationwide it looks as if real estate is suffering a double dip (according to the Case-Schiller index which realtors hate and economist love, I am not interested in debating it's merits) my fear is that NJ and Cranbury may be following this trend. |
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Guest
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Posted: Mon, Jun 6 2011, 10:18 am EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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I don't have a problem with the post you are referring to. The circumstances are different than in-person. The poster was responding to another anonymous poster who obviously was making up their credentials and expertise. They made-up a claim, that claim was contradicted by hard facts and then they repeated the claim again, ignoring the posted facts, and did so every bit as snarky and the responder. In-person it would be obvious the person wasn't who they claim to be and they wouldn't have been able to get away with making the silly comments in the first place. I share your disdain when posters attack people by name here. But getting snarky with an obvious “internet troll” who was trying to provoke responses is different.
The housing market in Cranbury is far from stable. Prices remain down and supply still greatly exceeds demand. It is a terrible time to sell unless you really need to. I think most people get that. There’s no need to make up easily contradicted facts to properly sober people to that reality. |
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Reality-Check Guest
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Posted: Mon, Jun 6 2011, 7:10 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Just got home from school and finished my milk and cookies! There is no evil gloating on my part, I posted facts which are easily verifiable by going down to the assessors office. The binary approximation used is highly accurate and takes into account the lower $$$ per square foot mentioned in one of the previous posts. Unfortunately like politics, many people in this town get upset when they are forced to face reality regarding home values and other issues affecting our town. My analysis above is based on mathematics, unfortunately many of the posters (multiple GUESTS???) are basing their opinions on their emotions. For those that are not mathematically inclined, I'll break my analysis down to the cliff notes, and I mean no insult by that, but here it goes:
If the seller gets greater than $251 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, they would've gotten a good deal. Should they receive less than $225.89 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, then they obviously got a poor deal. It's merely a range. For some of these GUESTS to make a blanket statement as to what the property is worth without knowing the mathematics behind the market other than getting prices from an online source speaks for itself. I will no longer engage in this diametric discussion. I wish my neighbor good luck and all the best!
PS: Degrees and credentials are very accurate  |
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Guest
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Posted: Mon, Jun 6 2011, 7:39 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Reality-Check wrote: | Just got home from school and finished my milk and cookies! There is no evil gloating on my part, I posted facts which are easily verifiable by going down to the assessors office. The binary approximation used is highly accurate and takes into account the lower $$$ per square foot mentioned in one of the previous posts. Unfortunately like politics, many people in this town get upset when they are forced to face reality regarding home values and other issues affecting our town. My analysis above is based on mathematics, unfortunately many of the posters (multiple GUESTS???) are basing their opinions on their emotions. For those that are not mathematically inclined, I'll break my analysis down to the cliff notes, and I mean no insult by that, but here it goes:
If the seller gets greater than $251 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, they would've gotten a good deal. Should they receive less than $225.89 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, then they obviously got a poor deal. It's merely a range. For some of these GUESTS to make a blanket statement as to what the property is worth without knowing the mathematics behind the market other than getting prices from an online source speaks for itself. I will no longer engage in this diametric discussion. I wish my neighbor good luck and all the best!
PS: Degrees and credentials are very accurate  |
RC- I'm not questioning your math, I'm questioning your logic. If the property for sale were warehouse space, I'd be inclined to agree with you. But people don't buy their primary home based on the average heated square foot. They look for bedrooms, bathrooms, unfinished rooms with potential (in some cases), neighborhood, yard, etc. Eventually, they typically have to convince a bank to loan them the money, so you are correct that the bank won't allow someone to purchase based on blind emotion. But there are a lot of factors involved.
Also, I took you obnoxious tone as an attempt at snarky humor, so I wasn't offended.
Now, about that steam room... Can I talk you into a heated barn instead? I hear the extra heated square feet will really help your resale value. |
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Guest
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Posted: Mon, Jun 6 2011, 8:25 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Reality-Check wrote: | Just got home from school and finished my milk and cookies! There is no evil gloating on my part, I posted facts which are easily verifiable by going down to the assessors office. The binary approximation used is highly accurate and takes into account the lower $$$ per square foot mentioned in one of the previous posts. Unfortunately like politics, many people in this town get upset when they are forced to face reality regarding home values and other issues affecting our town. My analysis above is based on mathematics, unfortunately many of the posters (multiple GUESTS???) are basing their opinions on their emotions. For those that are not mathematically inclined, I'll break my analysis down to the cliff notes, and I mean no insult by that, but here it goes:
If the seller gets greater than $251 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, they would've gotten a good deal. Should they receive less than $225.89 per HEATED SQUARE FOOT, then they obviously got a poor deal. It's merely a range. For some of these GUESTS to make a blanket statement as to what the property is worth without knowing the mathematics behind the market other than getting prices from an online source speaks for itself. I will no longer engage in this diametric discussion. I wish my neighbor good luck and all the best!
PS: Degrees and credentials are very accurate  |
Your assertion that the people contradicting you are upset about their home values is illogical since posters have not suggested that their problem with your theory is that it is under-estimating value. My examples all pointed toward your formula over-estimating values. Not something I would write if I was worried about the market or I was concerned with my home value. I’m not because I plan to live in mine at least another 20 years, but I would say if I was selling now I would be thrilled if I could sell it for $200 a foot let alone $225-225. My neighborhood had a couple sales in the last 9 months, both below $200 and both were on the market almost a year. Two others are on the market now, have been for months and already are asking figures that will put their cost per foot below the bottom of your average. There has not been a single sale in the last 5 years in your range among my comp homes.
Your theory works only when you say any data point that doesn’t fit your model was a result of someone getting a “good” or “bad” deal. That’s convenient and no real mathematician would really argue a theory works when you can dismiss as many aberrant data points as you want to isolate a subset of data that fits your theory. It’s like doing a trial for a new drug and excluding everyone who doesn’t respond to it.
So when comparable homes fail to sell for a year each then eventually sell within the same narrow price range per foot and other homes are now after 6+ months without sales approaching those sale cost ranges, you really believe that each of them is just accepting “bad deals”? That’s just dumb. What they are accepting is the fair market value for their homes as defined by demand – i.e. what people are eventually willing to pay for them. And why are all the comps coming in around the same range? You say because each owner accepted a bad deal. Logic says that this particular comp of homes and neighborhood has a different average per foot fair market price than other neighborhoods in Cranbury.
This is what everyone except you posting here sensibly understands. That home values are not defined by narrow arbitrary township-wide average, but are variable based on comparable homes which includes more than one variable, including the Township, the neighborhood, age of homes, size of lots, whether the home is very large, average or small in size, etc. Main Street homes is a market. Shadow Oaks homes is a market. Etc. They are not the same market. Your made-up theory would be even more ridiculous in large markets. For example, try making a case that every apartment in NYC can be defined by a narrow cost-per-foot range regardless of area. Any theory that asserts an entire township as a unified housing market is just ignorant.
What you fail to grasp is the objections to your point have nothing to do with defending the value of this home or values in Cranbury. This home may be over-priced, I haven’t looked at the data so I don’t know. The objections are simply to the lack of credibility to your basic argument, which is clearly based on very little understanding of residential real estate.
As for people going to see the data for themselves. I have done exactly that so I can flatly call BS because the data absolutely does not support your theory. And people don’t have to take a trip to do this for themselves. Just go to the Internet. The one thing we can agree on is please, by all means, check out the data for yourself. Call this math posters bluff. |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 4:12 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Here is a lesson on market transactions: they require a willing seller and a willing buyer. Talk to any appraiser or realtor, they will share experiences with outliers. Non-arms length transactions whereby prices are especially low. High market prices in instances where a buyer is enamored with a property and "must have it". So market data are indicators, not the end all and be all.
Bottom line, this is a nice property in a nice neighborhood. It will sell quickly. |
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Looking to leave Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 6:35 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Well I'm far from a real estate guru like the others here, but I am curious how the seller can price his/her house for $475 and it is only a 3 bedroom 1.5 bath with no basement, while the home directly across the street is a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath with a basement, sold for $480 when the housing market was higher at the time of sale. I'm not looking for an argument, but I'd like to understand.  |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 9:23 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Ask $475k
Give $25k in negotiations (about 5%)
Finish large unfinished area into Bed and bath for $30k
Substitute 3 car garage for split level basement
Throw in extraordinary landscaping and maintainence.
Voila. |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 9:36 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Guest wrote: | Ask $475k
Give $25k in negotiations (about 5%)
Finish large unfinished area into Bed and bath for $30k
Substitute 3 car garage for split level basement
Throw in extraordinary landscaping and maintainence.
Voila. |
You can finish a basement with a bedroom and bathroom for $30K? How much square feet? Can you give me the phone # of the contractor, I would be interested. |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 10:04 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Not for nothing, but I've been told much more that that! I have a 4 bedroom 2.5 bath home, and I was interested in converting my garage into a 5th bedroom, and I was given multiple quotes above $30,000 just for the conversion to the bedroom without the full bath. I'm interested in that contractor's #. Please post it!! |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 10:08 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Sounds to me like the seller acting as a shill for his own property. Beware. |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 11:27 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Shame on me for taking the bait and thinking there might be a light at the end of this tunnel.
No, I'm not the property owner.
If you want a great price on a bathroom, call Anthony Nichols. He's your neighbor and he'll do a great job at a great price.
Regarding basic construction costs, it sounds like either you are inflating or making up estimated costs, or you are simply unfamiliar with actual construction so as to be easily ripped off. So, here's a tip for your future projects... Price out the materials at Home Depot. Tell your contractor you're looking to pay 2x materials and see how close you get.
Maybe when you see how easy (and affordable) it is to frame, rock and paint, you'll get inspired. |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue, Jun 7 2011, 11:55 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Guest wrote: | Guest wrote: | Ask $475k
Give $25k in negotiations (about 5%)
Finish large unfinished area into Bed and bath for $30k
Substitute 3 car garage for split level basement
Throw in extraordinary landscaping and maintainence.
Voila. |
You can finish a basement with a bedroom and bathroom for $30K? How much square feet? Can you give me the phone # of the contractor, I would be interested. |
I seriously doubt any regular person hiring a contractor will get anywhere close to $30,000 for finishing a basement, including adding a bedroom and a bathroom. |
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cranburyhopeful Guest
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Posted: Wed, Jun 8 2011, 11:03 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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don't forget the value of timing.
as a buyer that wants to be in cranbury and wants to spend less than 500k and be in a neighborhood (no busy streets), this is the only option available currently! not to mention that it is meticulously maintained and
has great expansion possibilities (garage needs 1 wall and insulation/window) to be finished, need to simply remove partition & add bathroom to expand master bedroom on upper level. we were ready to make an offer, but apparently someone may have beaten us.
for all of those that are worried about selling, please contact me if you have a house that fits my criteria. from where i am sitting, the supply is far less than the demand... |
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Guest
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Posted: Thu, Jun 9 2011, 10:35 am EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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Some of these posts, including the one right above, are so transparently the realtor or seller of the house that they would be better off just signing their name instead of posting anonymously. |
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Guest
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Posted: Thu, Jun 9 2011, 12:16 pm EDT Post subject: Re: Cranbury home $475,000 (Ryan Rd.) |
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How big is the space over the garage? |
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